July 15th UNL Yield Forecast

Summer is upon us with warmer temperatures, corn pollination underway, and corn grain fill beginning. That also means talk about estimating corn yields come fall. I’m involved in two yield forecasting projects. One is out of ISU and is led by Dr. Sotirios Archontoulis using the APSIM crop model. And the other is out of the University of Nebraska – Lincoln (UNL) and is led by Dr. Patricio Grassini. This post is pertaining to the UNL yield forecast project and their first forecast of 2015.

Briefly, the UNL yield forecast project has collaborators across 10 states and includes both irrigated, dryland, and rainfed sites. This yield forecasts are based on Hybrid-Maize model simulations, with current year weather followed by historical weather records, and location specific corn management information. More details on the methodology and crop management can be found at; https://cropwatch.unl.edu/hybrid-maize-july-15-forecast.

Based on this yield forecast at this time, it can be expected that yields across Iowa will likely be near or above the long-term average. The probabilities of being below average range from 4% to 18% with the lowest probabilities being in eastern Iowa. The Lewis site has the greatest probability of being above average (76%) than any of the Iowa sites.

While the range of yield potentials is large, growing conditions have been favorable for corn production in Iowa. However, it should be noted that this forecast does not take into consideration stand establishment issues, hail, flooding, replant situations, disease/insect incidence, or nitrate leaching. Additional yield forecast information from the other 9 states can be found at; http://cropwatch.unl.edu/hybrid-maize-july-15-forecast.