The final April climatological outlooks issued by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) show elevated chances of warmer than average temperatures. On the precipitation front, there is no clear signal for Iowa, as outlooks continues to show a moderate La Niña configuration with above average probabilities of dryness from the High Plains into the Desert Southwest. Iowa falls into the EC category. When EC is present, climatological behavior (or what is expected for the month) is favored slightly, at 34%; above or below average conditions each have a 33% probability of occurrence. Seasonal outlooks for April-May-June and May-June-July also show higher probabilities of warmer conditions with EC for precipitation. La Niña is forecasted to persist through early spring with an 80% chance of transitioning into a neutral phase of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during late spring and early summer. Seasonal composites of rainfall behavior into summer show that if La Niña is present, drier conditions could prevail across portions of the Midwest.
Recent rains have helped soil moisture conditions across much of the state, though few areas are likely considered as wet. And many areas in northwest to north central Iowa are still somewhat to very dry looking at the whole soil moisture profile. While this is good for warming soils and starting planting, there still is ongoing dryness risk because of more limited soil moisture availability.
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