As we look ahead to spring, many wonder what conditions to anticipate and how this spring may compare to last. This article provides a brief climate outlook and information about current soil moisture conditions across the state.
Climate outlook
Current forecasts for the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show our present and relatively weak La Niña is expected to be short-lived, and we could transition to ENSO neutral sometime during April, May, or June. La Niña exists when sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are cooler than normal along the equator in the Pacific Ocean. ENSO neutral is when SSTs are near normal. As we transition to spring, forecast skill is historically lowest. This creates less confidence in mid-range forecasts. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks for March are still influenced by current La Niña conditions. For the month of March, the CPC temperature outlook shows slightly increased chances for above average temperature across Iowa. The CPC precipitation outlook shows slightly increased chances for precipitation in eastern Iowa in March. This does not mean only eastern Iowa will get rain during March, but rather, there is a general pattern in the models with active weather happening over the Ohio valley as opposed to the high plains.
Be sure to check in often with the National Weather Service for information on weather watches, warnings, and short-term forecasts. Meteorological winter ended on March 1st, but winter-like conditions may not be over yet.
Soil moisture conditions
The northwest Iowa climate district ranks at its 3rd driest winter on record. As reflected on the US Drought Monitor, much of Iowa is in moderate (D1) drought. Lack of winter snowfall, low stream flows, and little soil infiltration play into current drought rankings.
Estimated soil moisture across the state shows near-normal moisture conditions for the 0-10 cm depth. This is in response to rain on unfrozen soils especially in the southern half of the state. The 0-40 cm depth still shows signs of dryness in the 10-20th percentile. At this same time last year, much of eastern Iowa was in D3 (extreme) drought conditions and western Iowa was in D2 (severe) drought. Our current drought conditions across the state are at mostly D1, so we are starting March with less severe drought conditions compared to last March. Drought conditions are expected to persist across much of western Iowa, where precipitation deficits this winter have been greatest, through this spring. Rainfall on unfrozen soil is beneficial for replenishing soil moisture. The weather system that moved through Iowa on March 4th was expected to produce as much as 2” of rain in some areas of the state. As the low-pressure system travels east, cold air will be pulled into Iowa, creating a sharp gradient of rain to snow. Strong winds accompanying this system can quickly create blizzard conditions. More snow is expected in Iowa on Thursday night into Friday morning.
Links to this article are strongly encouraged, and this article may be republished without further permission if published as written and if credit is given to the author, Integrated Crop Management News, and Iowa State University Extension and Outreach. If this article is to be used in any other manner, permission from the author is required. This article was originally published on March 5, 2025. The information contained within may not be the most current and accurate depending on when it is accessed.
- Weather and Climate Extension Specialist