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The final June climatological outlooks from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued on May 31st continue to show similar patterns as the initial outlooks from mid-May. On the temperature side, there are higher probabilities of warmer-than-average conditions across most of Iowa. A “leaning below” normal signal is also found on the precipitation side across much of the Corn Belt, including Iowa. The probability is not exceedingly high (5-10% increased chance of wet conditions). As a reminder, June is the wettest month of the year climatologically for most of Iowa.

As we move into the final month of meteorological winter, outlooks for February continue to show a classic La Niña (LN) signature across the United States. On the temperature side, above-average probabilities for warmer temperatures are found across the East Coast and throughout much of the Sun Belt States. Elevated chances of colder than average temperatures are located over Minnesota, much of the Dakotas and into the Pacific Northwest. Iowa happens to be in the middle of the configuration and hence, has Equal Chances (EC) of being above/below/near-average (Figure 1).

The final April climatological outlooks issued by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) show elevated chances of warmer than average temperatures. On the precipitation front, there is no clear signal for Iowa, as outlooks continues to show a moderate La Niña configuration with above average probabilities of dryness from the High Plains into the Desert Southwest. Iowa falls into the EC category. When EC is present, climatological behavior (or what is expected for the month) is favored slightly, at 34%; above or below average conditions each have a 33% probability of occurrence.

Unlike many recent years, fall has been very dry and soils continue to be dry over much of western Iowa.  The conditions have been excellent for harvest and fall fieldwork but troubling for soil moisture recharge.  Soils in eastern Iowa are generally better, though not wet.

Spring has sprung! Preparations for planting across the state are in full swing. Conditions over the last 30 days have been unseasonably warm across the Midwest with positive departures of anywhere from two to four degrees. Early March had a good stretch of dry conditions; the second half of the month experienced a more active storm track in which rainfall (and some snow) fell every few days. With the recent wetness, the last thirty days were also wetter-than-normal.